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Tri-Valley Real Estate
Listings, Sales & Prices by City; Sales by Price Segment; Luxury Home Sales; Market Seasonality; Market Dynamics by City; & Foreign Homebuyers in America
August 2019 Market Report for Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore & Castro Valley
Median house sales prices and trend lines for Alameda County (green columns below) and for the entire 9-county Bay Area (gray line) are remarkably similar.
In many of the charts below, we'll also include cities further north in Diablo Valley for additional context to our market.
# Sales & Median Sales Prices
# Active Listings & Median ASKING Price
If there is a big difference between asking prices (below) and sales prices (above), it typically signifies some disconnect between seller and buyer expectations regarding fair market value, and/or the supply of higher-priced listings simply outweighs demand for such homes in that city.
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
Needless to say, there are many factors at play in the home values of different cities. But one of them is home size: Everything being equal (which it rarely is), smaller homes will sell for higher dollar per square foot values. Looking at the chart below for example, the median house size in Pleasanton usually runs under 2100 square feet, while in Blackhawk, it's typically about 3500. That is one factor behind the discrepancy in $/sq.ft. value.
Tri-Valley Home Sales & Sizes by Price Segment
Higher-Price Home Sales
Seasonality in the Tri-Valley Market
The ebb and flow of inventory and sales is dramatically seasonal. Generally speaking, activity usually peaks in spring, then gradually declines until plunging in November for the mid-winter holidays. But there is often a spike of new listings and sales in September and October for the relatively short autumn selling season.
Once Thanksgiving arrives, everything slows way down until the market begins to wake up in mid-January - but, of course, homes continue to sell in every season.
Illustrated in the chart below is the extremely low-inventory conditions that prevailed in 2017 through spring 2018. The quantity of active listings climbed in the past year, on a year-over-year basis, but supply is certainly not, so far, crazy high by a historical measure.
It is not unusual for listing inventory to hit its calendar-year peak in late summer or early autumn. We will have to wait and see if that is the case this year.
The market for more expensive homes is commonly even more starkly seasonal than for the general market. Last year in autumn 2018, there was a significant surge in activity in that segment.
Market Indicators by City
To a large degree, in recent years, buyer demand throughout the Bay Area has been related as much to price range as to specific city within a region - though there is always a number of factors at play. It is not unusual for more expensive markets to have somewhat softer supply and demand dynamics, but this is not always the case.
Foreign National Home Buying Tumbles
According to a new report by the National Association of Realtors - based on a survey of its member agents - the purchase of U.S. homes by foreign nationals plunged in the 12 months through March 2019. California, and the Bay Area in particular, have been top destinations for international homebuyers.
Stock Market Hits New High
The last 12 months have been an extremely dramatic time for financial markets as illustrated below. The alternating confidence and fear generated by its swings have been considerable factors in Bay Area real estate markets. A parallel dynamic has occurred with the swings in interest rates.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under
multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075,
1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material presented
herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable
but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without
notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square
footage are approximate. Equal Housing Opportunity.